What wins games
How strongly each rolling team stat correlates with a game's final margin. Positive = more of it tends to go with winning.
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How to read what wins games
Correlation with the final margin
Each bar is the correlation between one rolling team stat, measured before the game, and that game's final point margin. A value near +1 would mean more of that stat almost always goes with a bigger win; near 0 means it tells you little on its own. In basketball, even the strongest single stats land well short of 1, because games are decided by many things at once, which is exactly why the models combine dozens of features instead of leaning on one.
Home, away and the differential
The differential view, home team's value minus away team's value, is usually the most telling, because winning is relative: a great offense matters less against an equally great one. The home-only and away-only views show whether a stat matters more for one side, and switching between the 5- and 10-game windows shows whether a signal holds up as form is measured over a longer stretch.
Correlation is not causation
A stat can correlate with winning because it reflects team quality rather than causing wins: good teams post high plus-minus because they win, not the other way round. Treat this page as a map of which signals carry information, not a recipe for winning basketball.